In fact, it was too good to be true.
For the primary 100 days of Donald Trump‘s second presidency, it appeared just like the leisure business would possibly simply escape the large prices and relentless chaos unleashed by his radical makes an attempt to remake world commerce.
Leisure merchandise like motion pictures have been exempt from Trump’s unique “Liberation Day” tariffs as a result of they’re categorized as providers, relatively than bodily items. The business additionally took some assurance from the truth that movie and collection, very similar to huge tech, signify one of many United States’ strongest commerce surpluses, due to how far more Hollywood blockbusters usher in from overseas in comparison with international content material’s slim earnings inside the US. However in a Sunday evening submit to Fact Social, the president revealed — in screaming all-caps — that he’s concentrating on the movie enterprise subsequent.
“The Film Trade in America is DYING a really quick loss of life,” Trump wrote. “Different International locations are providing all kinds of incentives to attract our filmmakers and studios away from the US. Hollywood, and plenty of different areas inside the usA., are being devastated. It is a concerted effort by different Nations and, subsequently, a Nationwide Safety risk. It’s, along with every part else, messaging and propaganda!”
He continued: “Due to this fact, I’m authorizing the Division of Commerce, and the US Commerce Consultant to instantly start the method of instituting a 100% Tariff on any and all Motion pictures coming into our Nation which can be produced in International Lands. WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick replied to Trump’s statements on X (previously Twitter) by writing, “We’re on it.”
Jon Voight, whom Trump named one in every of his “particular ambassadors” to Hollywood, is the instigator of the president’s sudden curiosity in movie manufacturing, in line with a number of sources contacted by THR. The actor and his supervisor Steven Paul have been taking conferences with leaders of the Hollywood guilds and studios a couple of proposal to Trump for find out how to enhance U.S. manufacturing with a home movie incentive. To this point, the president seems to have interpreted that recommendation within the punitive language he prefers — tariffs as stick, relatively than incentive as carrot.
From the worldwide movie business, the early response is a predictable mixture of dread and whole confusion.
“Hollywood is a flagship business and it was naive to suppose it wouldn’t be impacted by Trump’s broader tariff struggle,” says Henning Molfenter, the previous head of movie and TV manufacturing at Germany’s Studio Babelsberg, who has overseen the worldwide shoots of such big-budget U.S. options because the Russo Brothers’ Captain America: Civil Battle and Lana Wachowski’s The Matrix Ressurections, in addition to Wes Anderson’s upcoming function, The Phoenician Scheme, which is able to premiere in Cannes. “Nevertheless it’s not clear what might be impacted. Is it simply motion pictures, or additionally streaming collection? Is it visible results, co-productions, worldwide movie financing? There’s an enormous diploma of uncertainty.”
Molfenter echoes a typical chorus: “How may this even work?”
On the danger of sane-washing a coverage which will or might not ever come to move, listed here are eight key questions the business might be pondering and contemplating as potential ammunition to push again in opposition to the president’s characteristically blunt opening salvo on the movie sector.
What movies might be hit by tariffs, and can it’s retroactive?
The studios have been capturing their greatest movies abroad for years, each to benefit from visually gorgeous international places and beneficiant rebates and tax incentives to decrease their manufacturing prices. Paramount’s Mission: Unattainable – The Last Reckoning, additionally heading to Cannes, tapped tax credit within the U.Okay. and different territories to offset its hefty manufacturing finances. Warner Brothers and Legendary Footage’ A Minecraft Film, the most important blockbuster of 2025, to this point, was principally shot in New Zealand, with some manufacturing in Canada. Likewise, James Cameron’s Avatar franchise, backed by Disney, shot solely in New Zealand. Marvel’s Avengers: Doomsday just lately started manufacturing in London. The listing goes on.
Would Trump’s tariffs apply retroactively to movies which have already shot or which have already begun manufacturing? In that case, the fee to the studios may very well be monumental. Roughly 45 p.c of A Minecraft Film‘s $875 million world field workplace haul — the $400 million it made on the U.S. field workplace — may theoretically be prone to Trump’s one hundred pc tariff.
And the way will the Trump administration classify motion pictures “produced in international lands”? Does together with any scene shot outdoors the U.S. qualify? Does a sure share of a movie’s finances have to return from worldwide manufacturing incentives? To this point, none of that is clear.
What about Netflix?
Trump’s preliminary social media missives solely talked about “motion pictures,” however many within the business assume any leisure tariff would additionally apply to collection manufacturing. That will be an enormous blow to Netflix and different streamers — Amazon, Disney+, HBO Max — which have been constructed on a mannequin of leveraging native manufacturing throughout a world subscriber base. Would Netflix have to drag Squid Recreation, Cash Heist and The Crown from its U.S. service or face tariffs? And the way would tariffs even be calculated for the streamers, which provide numerous foreign-made titles to U.S. prospects? How a lot of Netflix’s U.S. subscription income might be attributed to non-U.S.-produced reveals?
Would a tariff convey manufacturing again to the US?
Trump isn’t all flawed when he says movie manufacturing in America “is DYING.” A report final month from FilmLA, the nonprofit group that handles movie permits for town and county, confirmed capturing in L.A. decreased greater than 22 p.c over the three-month interval from January to March this yr. Greater than a yr after the 2 strikes that introduced the U.S. movie and TV enterprise to a standstill, manufacturing has not returned in pressure to L.A. Whereas some manufacturing has merely moved throughout state borders — Marvel has filmed lots of its greatest titles in Atlanta, making the most of the state’s 30 p.c tax credit score — there isn’t a doubt runaway manufacturing, to London, to Vancouver, to Budapest, Hungary, and Christchurch, New Zealand — has led to a pointy drop in America-made motion pictures. FilmLA studies manufacturing has dropped practically 40 p.c up to now decade, and the newest report from film business analysis agency ProdPro reveals manufacturing spending within the U.S. total was $14.54 billion final yr, down 26 p.c since 2022.
However would a film tariff really convey again movie manufacturing? The principle cause the studios and independents go overseas to shoot is cash. Making a movie within the U.S., which lacks federal tax incentives of the kind discovered within the U.Okay., Europe or Australia, might be 30 to 40 p.c dearer. Add to that the price of U.S. crews, that are pricier than their worldwide counterparts — thanks partly to the energy of American movie and TV unions — and it’s unclear whether or not a tariff can be sufficient to convey manufacturing again dwelling.
With out a home rebate to offset the misplaced incentives overseas, the elevated prices of filmmaking within the U.S. will seemingly imply that studio motion pictures get smaller — or grow to be extra digital, with extra quantity stage and greenscreen capturing or extra use of synthetic intelligence (although that might create new issues with the guilds, which have strict restrictions on using AI).
For small and mid-size impartial productions, a tariff may merely imply these movies don’t get made.
How will different international locations reply?
With Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, many international locations had restricted recourse for retaliation as a result of the U.S. commerce deficit on bodily items in practically all nations is so monumental. That’s not true for leisure. The U.S. exports practically 3 times as a lot leisure because it imports, in line with the MPA. Figures from the European Audiovisual Observatory, a media business suppose tank, present that U.S. movies accounted for 71.1 p.c of cinema admissions in Europe in 2023, the most recent yr for which figures can be found, with domestically made motion pictures making up simply over 25 p.c of gross sales. A tit-for-tat tariff response by worldwide governments would jack up the value of U.S. motion pictures overseas, and, for Hollywood, nonetheless struggling to get better from a post-COVID field workplace dip, it may very well be devastating.
What occurs to the foreign-language distribution enterprise?
Shopping for foreign-language movies for the U.S. has all the time been a tricky enterprise. Trump’s tariffs may make it practically inconceivable. Will the small variety of profitable worldwide movie consumers within the U.S. — Neon, Mubi, Sony Footage Classics — nonetheless afford to purchase and launch the best French, German and Japanese movies in North America when they’ll price twice as a lot below Trump’s tariff? What wouldn’t it imply for American mental life to be successfully walled off from a lot of the world’s most interesting cinema?
What about postproduction?
In the identical means that they’ve created manufacturing incentives to lure movie capturing to their shores, many international governments provide related rebates for postproduction work carried out inside their borders. Would Trump’s film tariff additionally goal postproduction work accomplished outdoors the U.S.? In that case, what would grow to be of the likes of New Zealand’s fabled Weta FX and Weta Workshop, Netflix’s Scanline VFX (in Canada and Europe) and the U.Okay.’s Double Damaging and Framestore, amongst others? Greater than every other sector of the enterprise, post-production has grow to be really world. Can Trump put an finish to that?
Can worldwide co-productions survive?
In its ongoing struggle for survival, the indie movie group has discovered to make use of each instrument at its disposal to get its motion pictures made — and as a rule, that has meant capturing overseas for rebates and leveraging international grants via co-production preparations. Brady Corbet’s multi-Oscar nominated indie triumph The Brutalist — made for simply $9.6 million — most likely wouldn’t have been potential in its completed kind had it not been arrange as a Hungarian/U.Okay./U.S. co-production, making the most of a number of tax incentives and manufacturing subsidies, and shot in low-cost Budapest. Mid-budget motion motion pictures — just about each Gerard Butler, Liam Neeson or Jason Statham shoot-’em-up you may consider — depend on finances crews and tax incentives, primarily in Jap European international locations, to make the numbers work. The majority of latest initiatives being packaged and pitched for the Cannes movie market subsequent week contain some type of worldwide co-production or non-U.S. shoot. Has Trump killed the Marche?
Will this really occur?
At this level within the Trump present, the famously unpredictable president appears to be following a script as drained as every other long-running, low-brow procedural. How seemingly is it that Trump’s film tariff will endure in its preliminary, blunt and far-reaching kind, or will it will definitely get watered down like lots of his different art-of-the-dumb-deal opening gambits? To this point, markets appear to be solely mildly involved. Amid a broader slip in inventory futures, Disney’s inventory was down simply over 3 p.c in pre-market buying and selling, whereas Netflix was below by 6 p.c and Warner Brothers Discovery down about 4 p.c.
