The 2024 Emmys: Who Will Win, Who Should Win — and Who Will Own the Night

Finest Drama Sequence

WILL WIN Shogun

In a skinny 12 months (The Crown is the one repeat nom), contenders embrace exhibits new (Fallout, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, 3 Physique Downside) and returning (The Morning Present, The Gilded Age, Gradual Horses). However the clear frontrunner — with a field-leading 25 noms — is an epic that was anticipated to be a restricted collection earlier than going over so nicely {that a} second season was ordered. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Shogun

The TV Academy must ship FX a muffin basket for saving what was going to be the weakest drama subject since earlier than the times of status cable. Even when FX lastly decides {that a} second Shogun season is a nasty thought — and it’s — Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks’ respectful, immaculately produced, astonishingly forged James Clavell adaptation is past worthy of its Emmy. — D.F.

Finest Lead Actor, Drama Sequence

WILL WIN Hiroyuki Sanada

A legend in Japan, Shogun’s Hiroyuki Sanada was little-known stateside — actually in comparison with fellow nominees Idris Elba (Hijack), Donald Glover (Mr. & Mrs. Smith), Walton Goggins (Fallout), Gary Oldman (Gradual Horses) and Dominic West (The Crown) — earlier than taking part in Lord Toranaga. However due to that efficiency, he’s, at 63, a global star and the clear frontrunner. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Hiroyuki Sanada

Sometimes you heard a “Not sufficient samurai preventing!” grievance leveled in opposition to Shogun. Balderdash. Simply watching Sanada’s Toranaga in deep contemplation was top-notch motion. Sanada made a doubtlessly imperious character unpredictable but calculating, stuffed with human ambition but not possible to ever learn utterly. — D.F.

Finest Lead Actress, Drama Sequence

WILL WIN Anna Sawai

Provided that the 2 actresses who performed Queen Elizabeth II on The Crown each gained this award, one can not completely rule out Imelda Staunton. However the gorgeous 32-year-old New Zealand-born Japanese actress who performed Shogun’s Girl Mariko is trying very exhausting to beat, having already gained the TCA Award for finest particular person achievement in a drama over all different female and male performers. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Anna Sawai

Why is that hypothetical second Shogun season such a nasty thought? As a result of Anna Sawai’s Mariko is the guts and soul of the primary season, a personality of sophisticated motivations and different emotional richness, and he or she appears … unlikely to be again. Bonus factors to Sawai for additionally being the perfect a part of Apple TV+’s Monarch: Legacy of Monsters. — D.F.

Finest Comedy Sequence

WILL WIN The Bear

The defending champion is, for its acclaimed second season, more likely to win once more, having garnered 23 noms, essentially the most for any comedy ever. However its third season dropped in June and proved extremely polarizing, which may redirect some assist to formidable rivals Hacks, Abbott Elementary, Solely Murders within the Constructing and Curb Your Enthusiasm, all previous nominees. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Reservation Canine

After two years of just about completely shunning the perfect comedy on tv, voters lastly seen Sterlin Harjo’s Oklahoma-set triumph of coming-of-age Indigenous storytelling. The ultimate season included a wild ’70s flashback, a supernaturally fueled take a look at generational trauma, a wacky psychological hospital breakout and a fantastic father-daughter two-hander. — D.F.

Finest Lead Actor, Comedy Sequence

WILL WIN Jeremy Allen White

It’s actually good to see props for Solely Murders within the Constructing veterans Steve Martin and Martin Quick and FX stars Matt Berry (What We Do within the Shadows) and 22-year-old D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Canine). However you’ll be able to take it to the kitchen: Voters will say “Sure, Chef” to The Bear’s main man for the second straight ceremony. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai

If I may give an Emmy to one of many Reservation Canine ensemble, it will be to Devery Jacobs — for writing, directing and appearing — however in lieu of that, Woon-A-Tai had a really spectacular season, particularly in “Maximus,” which he shared with the nice Graham Greene. No offense to White, however Woon-A-Tai or Berry can be extra fascinating. — D.F.

Finest Lead Actress, Comedy Sequence

WILL WIN Jean Sensible

That is between Hacks’ Jean Sensible, who gained for each of her present’s prior seasons; Abbott Elementary’s Quinta Brunson, who gained final 12 months when Sensible was ineligible; and The Bear’s Ayo Edebiri, who final 12 months gained finest comedy supporting actress, then submitted as a lead this season. Sensible has overwhelmed Brunson, however Edebiri’s by no means competed in opposition to both. Edge to the veteran. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Jean Sensible

Sensible has reached the Candice Bergen/Julia Louis-Dreyfus part the place it’s pathologically boring to maintain giving her Emmys, however she’s so good in so many various methods that you could’t quibble. Deborah Vance’s darkish flip within the season finale, desperately clinging to the dream she thought had handed her by, was fantastically performed. — D.F.

Finest Restricted/Anthology Sequence

WILL WIN Child Reindeer

HBO’s True Detective and FX’s Fargo are anthology collection up for his or her fifth and fourth installments; the previous garnered a field-best 19 whole noms, whereas the latter gained this award for its debut in 2014. And Netflix has two limiteds in rivalry: the suave Ripley and the non-public and provocative Child Reindeer, which, like different latest winners, has spurred cultural dialog. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Ripley

Steven Zaillian responded to the worthy “Do we want a brand new Ripley take?” query with a tragic, suspenseful, generally hilarious eight-episode restricted collection. Andrew Scott put his private stamp on this mature, much less preternaturally gifted model of the character, and Robert Elswit’s breathtaking black-and-white cinematography is an Emmy lock. — D.F.

Finest Lead Actor, Restricted/Anthology Sequence

WILL WIN Richard Gadd

Richard Gadd, a stand-up comedian with little appearing expertise, wrote Child Reindeer drawing upon his private experiences, after which determined to play himself, which may have gone very improper. Different nominees’ performances could also be extra emotive — Ripley’s Andrew Scott, Fargo’s Jon Hamm and Feud: Capote vs. The Swans’ Tom Hollander — however no more haunting. — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Richard Gadd

This can be a nice class, that includes Hamm with nipple rings, Matt Bomer as a Purple Scare model of Don Draper, and Hollander and Scott placing their very own stamps on characters performed indelibly a number of occasions earlier than. However for the entire points of Child Reindeer that got here out of nowhere, Gadd’s semi-autobiographical open wound of a efficiency was essentially the most revelatory. — D.F.

Finest Lead Actress, Restricted/Anthology Sequence

WILL WIN Jodie Foster

Jodie Foster is likely one of the most revered actresses on the earth, however she has by no means gained an Emmy, and voters will likely be hard-pressed to disclaim her for her flip within the newest True Detective. If an upset have been to occur, it may come from fellow Oscar winner Brie Larson (Classes in Chemistry) or, for her first dramatic function, Sofía Vergara (Griselda). — S.F.

SHOULD WIN Juno Temple

Each Foster and Larson convey their star wattage to embodying unapologetically prickly characters, however I like how Juno Temple begins with what seems like a cartoon — the newest Fargo embodiment of Minnesota good — and finds the trauma and the sweetness and the fierce (Dot) Lyon toughness. She’s particularly good within the finale with the snubbed Sam Spruell. — D.F.